This article was republished from Capital & Empire. We encourage you to subscribe to their substack.
A classified CIA analysis circulating this week found that Washington’s Gulf allies are split over how much military support to provide for the Trump administration’s war against Iran, sources familiar with the assessment told Capital & Empire. The U.S. intelligence community assessment suggested that several key Gulf partners favor negotiations with Tehran and are increasingly reluctant to provide the access and political backing the U.S. and Israel would need to restart and widen the conflict.
The analysis determined that the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain would prefer if the U.S. and Israel kept striking Iran. Abu Dhabi appears to believe that Israeli Iron Dome batteries and personnel deployed to the UAE will help shield the country from the worst of any future Iranian retaliation, according to the assessment, helping explain its willingness to support further escalation despite having absorbed more Iranian strikes than any other Gulf state.
The UAE has emerged as the most hawkish Gulf state in part because it has borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliation. Iranian missile and drone strikes have hit Emirati energy facilities, airports, and hotels, while disruptions to air travel through Dubai challenged the image of stability and safety that underpins the country’s role as a global hub for tourism and commerce. Emirati leaders are furious and have doubled down on their alignment with the U.S. and Israel. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that the UAE has also carried out covert strikes inside Iran, including an attack on an oil refinery, though the Emirati government has not publicly acknowledged those attacks.
